信息來(lái)自四面八方，如何去偽存真，保持頭腦清醒？Paul’s Tips給出了保持思維敏銳的七條規則：
合理質(zhì)疑
所謂質(zhì)疑，就是在有事實(shí)根據之前，不要輕信。不要只看表面現象，仔細分析再做出判斷。尤其是那些聽(tīng)上去很誘人的東西，什么讓你一夜暴富的秘密、輕松減肥的竅門(mén)、獲得某種超能力，你一定要保持警惕，沒(méi)有足夠證據之前，絕對不要盲信。
看重鐵的事實(shí)，而不是假設、討論和推論
我們要的是未經(jīng)過(guò)加工，真實(shí)反映實(shí)際情況的事實(shí)資料，所有的討論和結論都應該有其事實(shí)基礎。如果什么人要灌輸給你什么觀(guān)點(diǎn)，先問(wèn)他要靠的住的客觀(guān)事實(shí)?？陀^(guān)很重要，“老王有兩米高”是客觀(guān)事實(shí)，“老王是帥哥”不是。這些事實(shí)最好有第三方人士或者機構提供的驗證。
沒(méi)有足夠的事實(shí)資料，就不能下結論
沒(méi)有足夠的事實(shí)撐腰，最好的結論可能就是“我不知道”。對很多人來(lái)講，得出哪怕一個(gè)結論也比沒(méi)有強。這么想實(shí)際上是錯誤的。比如人死后會(huì )不會(huì )到另一個(gè)世界，人們可能有很多幻想，各種宗教也有不同的解釋?zhuān)亲罱咏聦?shí)的答案就是“我不知道”。
尋求并驗證假設
因為我們不可能了解所有的事情，討論得出的結果往往都是假設。甚至結論本身也只是在某種條件下經(jīng)過(guò)檢驗的假設而已?？茖W(xué)的發(fā)展也是一樣，萬(wàn)有引力在牛頓時(shí)代就是真理，在愛(ài)因斯坦時(shí)代就只是在一定條件下成立的假設。
在得出結論的時(shí)候，一定要搞清楚這個(gè)結論到底在什么條件下才成立。
找出反例
如果已經(jīng)知道一個(gè)結論在什么條件下成立，你最好再想想，在什么條件下它不成立。一定有這樣的條件，除非你沒(méi)辦法窮舉各種條件。
事物都有其兩面性，接受了一面的同時(shí)，給另一面一個(gè)機會(huì )。
盡量避免偏見(jiàn)
每個(gè)人做出判斷的時(shí)候都不可避免的帶有自己的偏見(jiàn)。你需要做的就是盡量減少偏見(jiàn)對你的影響。面對新事物的時(shí)候，保持謙虛，提醒自己不可能什么都懂什么時(shí)候都是對的。暫時(shí)拋開(kāi)你固有的世界觀(guān)，給事實(shí)一個(gè)被聆聽(tīng)的機會(huì )。
隨時(shí)愿意根據情況得變化改變自己的結論
著(zhù)名經(jīng)濟學(xué)家凱恩斯說(shuō)過(guò)“當事實(shí)發(fā)生變化，我會(huì )改變我的想法。你為什么不？”這是一種令人肅然起敬的態(tài)度。我們只是一些凡夫俗子，通過(guò)片言支語(yǔ)得到一些結論，如果這些結論是錯誤的，再正常不過(guò)。放棄自己的錯誤觀(guān)點(diǎn)沒(méi)什么丟面子的。
“七條讓你思維敏銳的規則”
Seven rules for sharpening up your thinking skills
Every day we‘re flooded with information from all sorts of sources. Much of it is trying to sell us some kind of conclusion: “PMart is the cheapest”, “Global warming is the biggest problem facing humanity”, “Susan thinks you’re cute” and so on.
The problem is often information from one source contradicts that from another. Worse, there are people out there who try to persuade us of false ideas in order to further their own interests.
In such a world, learning how to think for yourself should be one of the primary goals of every person. Of course, most people believe they already have this skill in spades. But becoming a sharp thinker is an ongoing process - an aim that‘s never fully realized.
Just in case your skills need a bit of brushing up, here are some good strategies for doing so.
Have a healthy level of scepticism
Scepticism is the belief that knowledge is very difficult to obtain. As an attitude, it means believing that any new idea presented to you is false until reasonable evidence is provided that it’s true.
Don’t trust new information at its face value. Instead, dissect it carefully before accepting it.
This is particularly necessary for claims that seem incredible or fail to match your experience of the world. If someone states they can teach you superhuman powers, make you rich quickly, or help you lose weight without much effort, you should be extremely sceptical. Make them present plenty of evidence to back such claims up.
Look for hard data, not assumptions, arguments and conclusions
Data is raw information about the world. It should be the starting point for any argument or conclusion. If someone tries to present an idea to you without credible, objective data to back it up, you should not accept it as truth until such data is forthcoming.
The best data is completely objective, such as “Mike is 2 meters tall”. It should not contain value judgements like “Mike is a great guy” or “Staff in that store can’t be trusted”. Data must be verifiable from more than one unrelated source before it can be considered of reliable quality.
If there’s not enough data then no conclusion can be formed
There are lots of things in the universe that we simply can‘t confirm. In cases where there’s not enough data to form a conclusion, “I don’t know” is the only acceptable answer.
This is a very difficult point for many people to accept. It seems to be human nature to believe that any answer is better than no answer. Such an attitude is just plain wrong.
The question: “Is there life after death?” is a good example. People have argued over this question for thousands of years. The best minds in history have pondered it. All sorts of clever-sounding theories have been proposed - often wrapped in seductive language.
Despite all the effort, there has never been any reliable, verifiable evidence presented to support any conclusion on this point. There is simply not enough data to back an argument either way.
Of course, some people say they‘re in contact with the dead, and others claim to have had near-death experiences which gave them an insight into the afterlife. But no-one has ever managed to provide convincing evidence of these phenomena.
The only acceptable answer to the sharp-minded thinker is: "There’s not enough data to form any sort of conclusion".
Many religious and spiritual questions come under this umbrella, as do speculations about alien life and the far-future. Perhaps one day we‘ll have the evidence we need to make reasonable conclusions, but so far that hasn‘t happened.
Look for and verify assumptions
An assumption is data to back up an argument that isn’t explicitly stated. Any argument has assumptions, simply because we as humans are unable to know everything.
Even the conclusions presented by science have in-built assumptions that can‘t be proven. Most scientific facts are verified by experiment, but no experiment is perfect. No matter how many times you test a hypothesis, you can’t test it under every condition. Sooner or later, you must assume that just because it works under a certain number of conditions, it will work under all.
Science also assumes that the future will continue to look like the past. There’s no implicit reason to believe, for example, that just because gravity has worked one way every time it’s ever been tested up to now, it will continue to do so in the future.
Before accepting any argument, you should probe its assumptions to see how credible they are.
Here’s an example of how to examine assumptions:
Fred: "One day, our machines may become so intelligent that they decide to kill us all."
Alice: "Why would machines want to deliberately kill us?"
Fred: "And so they can rule the world without our interfering."
Alice: "Why would machines want to rule the world. What would be their motive?"
Fred: "And so they can never be switched off."
Alice: "Machines don‘t seem to care if we switch them off today. What makes you think that will change?"
And so on.
Look for circumstances where the conclusion may be found false
If you can see cases where a particular conclusion may be right, now rack you brain to find a circumstance under which it may be wrong. If you can’t find one, you’re probably not trying hard enough.
For example, if someone says "All English people like pop music", try to find an example of an English person who‘s explicitly stated he doesn‘t like pop music.
If you accept that something‘s right, challenge yourself by looking for others who disagree. Give their views a fair hearing and use them to examine your own beliefs.
Make strong attempts to overcome your biases
Everyone has biases which affect their judgement. You should try to suspend yours, as much as possible, while evaluating new information. Initially approach anything new in a humble manner, recognizing that it’s impossible you could know everything and be always right. Give the information a fair hearing based on the data presented, and keep your particular world-view out of it.
Be willing to change your conclusions in the face of new data
Legendary economist John Maynard Keynes, upon being accused of inconsistency, once said: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”
This is an admirable attitude to have. We‘re all just imperfect mortals forming conclusions with only a shred of the data we really need to do so. Accept that you‘ll often hold ideas and beliefs that are wrong. Be ready to change those ideas and beliefs when the world tells you that the time has come to do so.
So there they are, my rules for improving your critical thinking and sharpening up your mind skills. I hope they help you form better conclusions about the world.
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