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1 英文原文

The fate of the dollar will shape financial markets in 2019

After rising by 7% against a basket of currencies in 2018, where is it headed next?

Back at work, investors might usefully apply this aphorism to the fate of the dollar. In a volatile period for financial markets, it rose by 7% against a broad basket of currencies in 2018 and by 4% against a narrower group of rich-country currencies (see chart). One of the more robust principles of foreign-exchange trading is that what goes up must eventually come down. The dollar is over-valued on benchmarks, such as The Economist’s Big Mac Index (see Graphic Detail). It is due a fall. When that is all that is left, the manner of its falling will matter a great deal.

The bear case for the dollar is based on an expectation that GDP growth in America will slow markedly. Last year, it was boosted by tax cuts. That stimulus will fade. Interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve will bite harder. A lower oil price is a factor. It hurts investment in America’s shale regions, but is a boon for oil-importing countries in Asia and Europe. America’s stockmarket is relatively dear. Its tech darlings no longer seem invulnerable. In short, an exceptional period for America’s economy is coming to an end. The dollar ought to lose ground, too.

2 選文精講

The fate of the dollar will shape financial markets in 2019

美元的命運將左右2019年金融市場(chǎng)

• shape: 塑造（to give definite form, shape, organization, or character to; fashion or form.），shape經(jīng)常在外刊中出現，一般做動(dòng)詞“塑造”的意思，例如近期在《經(jīng)濟學(xué)人》一篇講中國如何主宰科技的文章中有一句話(huà)：

• Today the country that the May Fourth students helped shape is more than ever consumed by the pursuit of national greatness.（from "How China could dominate science"） 今天，五四學(xué)生想要塑造的這個(gè)國家比以往任何時(shí)候都更熱衷于追求國家的強大。

After rising by 7% against a basket of currencies in 2018, where is it headed next?

在2018年美元對一籃子貨幣匯率上升7%之后，下一步將何去何從?

Back at work, investors might usefully apply this aphorism to the fate of the dollar. In a volatile period for financial markets, it rose by 7% against a broad basket of currencies in 2018 and by 4% against a narrower group of rich-country currencies (see chart). One of the more robust principles of foreign-exchange trading is that what goes up must eventually come down. The dollar is over-valued on benchmarks, such as The Economist’s Big Mac Index (see Graphic Detail). It is due a fall. When that is all that is left, the manner of its falling will matter a great deal.

• aphorism: 格言、諺語(yǔ)，聯(lián)系上下文，這里指上文的“Locked in a cellar as his father approaches, Richard resolves not to cower. “As if the way one falls down mattered,” mocks one of his brothers. “When the fall is all that is,” replies Richard, “it matters”.”當父親逼近被鎖在地窖的理查德時(shí)，他決心不再退縮，他的弟弟嘲笑道：“誰(shuí)會(huì )關(guān)心一個(gè)倒地的人是以什么姿勢摔倒的呢？”理查德回應說(shuō):“當摔倒無(wú)可避免，那如何倒下就很重要?！?approach：靠近、逼近；cower: 畏縮、退縮；As if  the way  one falls down  mattered: 字面意思是“一個(gè)人摔倒的方式看似很重要”，言下之意就是“一個(gè)人摔倒的方式不重要”，按翻譯信達雅的要求，可翻譯成“誰(shuí)會(huì )關(guān)心一個(gè)倒地的人是以什么姿勢摔倒的呢”；all that is: 字面意思是“全部、沒(méi)有其它的”，引申義是“注定的、不可避免的”，本段最后一句“When that is all that is left”, 也是同樣的意思，可翻譯為“當下跌是注定的”。

• volatile: 原意指“具有揮發(fā)性的”，這里指“不穩定的”，這個(gè)詞經(jīng)常在外刊中出現，一般指政治、經(jīng)濟等不穩定（volatile economy: 經(jīng)濟不穩定），例如《華盛頓郵報》中有一句話(huà)：

• The U.S. economy has a good chance of remaining healthy even as China and Europe soften, and markets and politics remain volatile, many economists say. 許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家說(shuō)，即使中國和歐洲經(jīng)濟疲軟，市場(chǎng)和政治動(dòng)蕩不安，美國經(jīng)濟依然可以呈健康態(tài)勢。

• a broad basket of currencies：一籃子貨幣，固定表達，記住就好。

• robust principle：鐵定原則。robust: 強健的，在外刊中，一般指經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)強勁，eg. robust growth：強勁增長(cháng)。

• what goes up must eventually come down: 有漲必有跌 [寫(xiě)作推薦]

• Economist’s Big Mac Index: 《經(jīng)濟學(xué)人》雜志的巨無(wú)霸漢堡指數，英國《經(jīng)濟學(xué)人》雜志編制的一個(gè)不是很?chē)乐數闹笖怠?該雜志比較麥當勞巨無(wú)霸漢堡包(Bid Mac)在世界各地的價(jià)格，作為各國幣值是否被低估或高估的指南。其假設是相似的食品無(wú)論在哪里銷(xiāo)售，其價(jià)格應當是相同的，價(jià)格有差別意味著(zhù)幣值出現異常情況。

• due：該詞有很多意思，due date: 截止日、到期日；due to: 因為、由于；這里due是指“欠下的”意思，整句話(huà)意思是美元還欠我們一個(gè)下跌。

• matter a great deal: 很重要 [寫(xiě)作推薦]

（過(guò)完圣誕節）重新回到工作中，投資者會(huì )發(fā)現將這句格言用于美元的命運上也非常恰當。在金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩的2018年，美元對一攬子貨幣匯率上升7%，對少數發(fā)達國家貨幣匯率上升4%(見(jiàn)圖表)。外匯交易中一項鐵定原則是，有漲必有跌。在諸如《經(jīng)濟學(xué)人》的巨無(wú)霸指數等基準上，美元被高估了，現在美元還欠我們一個(gè)下跌，如果下跌是注定的，那它的下跌方式很重要。

The bear case for the dollar is based on an expectation that GDP growth in America will slow markedly. Last year, it was boosted by tax cuts. That stimulus will fade. Interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve will bite harder. A lower oil price is a factor. It hurts investment in America’s shale regions, but is a boon for oil-importing countries in Asia and Europe. America’s stockmarket is relatively dear. Its tech darlings no longer seem invulnerable. In short, an exceptional period for America’s economy is coming to an end. The dollar ought to lose ground, too.

• markedly: 顯著(zhù)的（to an extent which is clearly noticeable; significantly.），可與noticeably, strinkingly, remarkably, significantly, apparently等詞互換，這些詞在外刊中都經(jīng)常出現。

• boost: 推動(dòng)，促進(jìn)，一般用于推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、推動(dòng)實(shí)力、促進(jìn)能力等，例如《經(jīng)濟學(xué)人》一篇關(guān)于中國引進(jìn)日本養老院模式的文章標題就是：

• Old-age homes boost Japan’s soft power in China 養老院推動(dòng)日本在中國的軟實(shí)力

• fade: 逐漸消失，可與dim, vanish(一般指突然消失)，disappear（強調消失不見(jiàn)）, weaken, wither, diminish等詞互換，但這些詞又有各自的意味，大家在閱讀外刊中可以仔細揣摩。

• bite: 原意是指“咬”的意思，這里是指“使更加糟糕”，(Slang . to be notably repellent, disappointing, poor, etc.)，bite harder: 雪上加霜。

• boon: 福利、恩惠，可數名詞。

• exceptional period: 非常時(shí)期、特殊時(shí)期。

• is coming to an end:  即將結束，非常簡(jiǎn)單也非常實(shí)用的短語(yǔ)。 [寫(xiě)作推薦]

• lose ground: 下跌，此外還有后退、處于不利地位的意思

看跌美元是基于對美國GDP增長(cháng)將顯著(zhù)放緩的預期。去年，減稅推動(dòng)了經(jīng)濟增長(cháng)。這種刺激效應將會(huì )消退，美聯(lián)儲提高基準利率則更是雪上加霜。油價(jià)下跌是一個(gè)因素，這會(huì )抑制對美國頁(yè)巖地區的投資，但對亞洲和歐洲的石油進(jìn)口國卻是個(gè)福音。美國股價(jià)處于相對高位，并且它的技術(shù)寵兒似乎不再無(wú)懈可擊。簡(jiǎn)而言之，美國經(jīng)濟的一個(gè)特殊時(shí)期（增長(cháng)時(shí)期）即將結束，美元下跌在所難免。