War Games: Gaining Advantage on the Business Battleground
野戰：在商業(yè)戰場(chǎng)上取得優(yōu)勢
This article identifies the preparation necessary for a war game. Examples of candidate companies that might be preparing for a war game are listed below. In addition, at the bottom of the article is a concise list titled "Ten Steps of Business War Gaming."
本文闡述的是野戰必需的備戰工作。以下列舉了作戰公司的備戰的例子。另外，下文詳述了“野戰游戲之十大步驟”的簡(jiǎn)明清單。
Competitive Case 1
競爭案例1
Company A and competing firms have a number of key clients in the telecommunications industry, which is facing legislative pressures that may change the face of competition. Pending legislation may enable companies outside the telecommunications industry to enter into this space. Its top executives want to understand how key rivals will behave under likely scenarios, so that the executives can form better strategic decisions and observe signals regarding emerging developments.
A公司與競爭同行在電信行業(yè)中均有著(zhù)一定數量的關(guān)鍵客戶(hù)，這行業(yè)正面對立法方面的壓力，這可能改變的競爭格局。正在草擬有關(guān)允許電信行業(yè)以外的公司進(jìn)入這領(lǐng)域。 該公司的最高管理層意欲了解主要對手在這形勢下將采取的行動(dòng)，使得管理層能制定更好戰略決策以及觀(guān)察這新發(fā)展的動(dòng)向。
Competitive Case 2
競爭案例2
Company B is planning on introducing a new product in the coming year. Its managers want to understand better the current marketplace, how its main competitor will respond to the product launch, and, in turn, how it should respond.
公司B正計劃在來(lái)年引進(jìn)一個(gè)新產(chǎn)品。該公司的管理層想更好地了解當前產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)份額， 其主要競爭對手對新產(chǎn)品投放市場(chǎng)的反應，然后該公司應如何制定應對措施。
Competitive Case 3
競爭案例3
Company C is expanding into a new geographic region in which a competitor already has a minor presence. Its executives want to understand their competitor‘s current growth strategy for the region, how their competitors will react when they learn about Company C‘s plans, and how Company C can stay ahead of the competitor‘s reaction.
公司C正在一個(gè)新地區拓展業(yè)務(wù)，而競爭對手已在該地區占有些許份額。該公司管理層希望了解他們競爭者在該地區當前階段的發(fā)展策略，在他們競爭者獲悉C公司的產(chǎn)品計劃時(shí)將如何反擊，以及C公司怎樣在競爭者的反擊中仍能位居其首。
In each of the above cases, an organization is facing significant issues which require deeper understanding of the external environment - their market, industry forces and competitors - so that management can better inform their strategy, decisions, actions and/or reactions. We can draw on a variety of competitive tools to support cases like these. Among the most effective is the war game.
在上述的每個(gè)案例中，一個(gè)組織正面臨一個(gè)突出問(wèn)題，就是需要對外界環(huán)境作更深刻的了解——如該市場(chǎng)、行業(yè)的驅動(dòng)力和競爭者，使得管理層能更好地制定他們的策略、決定、行動(dòng)和/或再行動(dòng)。我們可以通過(guò)各種各樣的競爭工具去支持這些例案，其中最有效的就是野戰游戲。
As its name suggests - and like many competitive intelligence tools and practices - business war gaming draws from long-standing military practices. Just as opponents face one another on the battlefield, competitors confront each other in the marketplace. Among rivals, the challenge is to ensure competitive advantage by
名如其實(shí)，就像很多智力競技比拼和實(shí)戰一樣——商業(yè)野戰源于長(cháng)期的軍事實(shí)戰。競爭者們在商場(chǎng)相互角逐，就像戰場(chǎng)上敵人的相互對壘。在對手中，承受著(zhù)如何保持競爭優(yōu)勢的挑戰，如下：
minimizing threats, risks, and surprises
最少的威脅、風(fēng)險和驚險
taking full advantage of opportunities
充分利用各種機會(huì )的優(yōu)勢
maximizing resources.
資源最優(yōu)化
This may be achieved through
以上這些可以通過(guò)：
understanding strengths, weakness and options
知已知彼，了解雙方的優(yōu)勢、弱勢和可選擇的余地
understanding the competitive environment, including the competition
了解競爭環(huán)境，包括競爭本身
anticipating emerging or likely developments
預知形勢現況與發(fā)展
taking into account uncertainties and chaos - the "fog of war."
考慮戰事的迷霧——不確定的因素和干擾
In business settings, this involves knowing the industry, its dynamics and influencing factors and "getting into the heads" of competitors - in other words, understanding the battle landscape, gaining insights to how the opposition will behave in the boardroom and in the field, and being as prepared as possible for factors we can and cannot control.
在商業(yè)模式里，這涉及對工業(yè)領(lǐng)域的了解及其動(dòng)因和影響因素，以及了解競爭對手的情況，換言之，就要了解戰事形勢，深知對手在該領(lǐng)域和內部決策反應，以及對我們可控和不可控的因素作好一切準備。
Like military war games, business war games are exercises that anticipate activities under specific situations or conditions in order to help an organization devise strategies, develop courses of action, plan initiatives and test ideas. Companies often conduct war games when facing a new or high-stakes situation, decision or event; when they are seeking fresh ideas or perspectives, or when they want to build consensus, cohesion or focus in their strategy, planning or decision-making.
就軍事野戰一樣，商業(yè)野戰是在特定情況或條件下做出預測，以助于組織制定策略，進(jìn)一步草擬、實(shí)施計劃和驗證思想。如一家經(jīng)常開(kāi)展野戰活動(dòng)公司在遇上新的緊張形勢、決定或事件時(shí)，他們會(huì )尋找新思維或方法，或會(huì )想方設法地專(zhuān)注于建立在大多數人的意見(jiàn)的戰略、計劃或決定上。
Games Companies Play
公司游戲規則
In its simplest form, a war game involves establishing two teams: one representing a competitor, client, market or other business factor and the other representing the "home" company, another competitor, client, market or business factor. Teams are formed around a question or issue, like a company‘s or its rival‘s impending product launch. In the first instance, one team representing the "home" company may take specific actions toward its product launch, testing them against their competitor‘s actions and reactions. As participants progress through the war game exercise, the "home" team and the "competitor" team may move through phases or rounds of actions and responses, exploring various perspectives, factors and courses of action.
最簡(jiǎn)單的野戰游戲方法，是分成2小組，一方扮演競爭者、客戶(hù)、或其他商業(yè)角色，其他則代表本公司。各小組圍繞一個(gè)問(wèn)題，如一家公司或他的對手準備投入一項新產(chǎn)品。在這個(gè)例子中，一組代表“本公司”，對即將投入的新產(chǎn)品采取的行動(dòng)，測試或反應。隨著(zhù)野戰游戲的進(jìn)程不斷推進(jìn)，“本公司”和“競爭公司”在對不同階段的行動(dòng)或反映中，探索出不種的觀(guān)點(diǎn)、因素或行動(dòng)計劃。
Prior to engaging in a war game exercise, each team must be sufficiently briefed regarding the nature and purpose of the game, the rules of play, role(s) and assignment(s) for each participant. Participants should be supplied relevant research and analysis that will help inform their role-play. This may include company, unit, management and/or market profiles, recent actions taken, external influencing factors, etc. Each team begins the exercise using information or tools that are supplied to them; however, with each round, an opposing team or the facilitator may introduce new factors, tasks, or even surprises that each team needs to consider for its next course of action.
根據先前野戰戲的經(jīng)驗，各組一定要明確知道這游戲的性質(zhì)與目的，游戲的規則，每個(gè)參與者的角色和作業(yè)。參與者應準備各自角色的相關(guān)資料、要求。參與者搜集相關(guān)資料，包括公司、單元、管理層和/或市場(chǎng)的概況，當前的采取的行動(dòng)，外界影響因素等。每組用提供給他們的工具或信息練習。但每個(gè)回合，對方或其它商業(yè)角色可引入新的因素、任務(wù)、甚至是各組要考慮階段行動(dòng)。
After each round, the game may pause for participants to analyze the outcomes of each phase. This continues until the objectives of the war game exercise are achieved. As the war game concludes, each team identifies likely strategies and actions that its company is likely to or should take, taking into account key information and intelligence gaps, and presents its findings to fellow participants and other relevant personnel. Teams should also outline key lessons regarding their companies and the war game exercise. Finally, the product of the war game effort should inform any formal strategy, plan(s), contingencies and/or courses of action.
每個(gè)回合結束后, 游戲將暫停, 讓參與者分析各個(gè)階段的結果. 如此直至野戰游戲的目標得以實(shí)現.在總結野戰游戲時(shí),每組都要確認他們的戰略和將要采取的行動(dòng),考慮關(guān)鍵信息和回旋處,和向他的同僚或相關(guān)人提出他的發(fā)現. 各組一定要把他們公司或野戰有關(guān)的關(guān)鍵經(jīng)驗總結出來(lái) .最后, 野戰游戲的方法可指導任何一個(gè)正式戰略或行動(dòng)中去.
War games can range widely in scope and complexity. Each exercise should be designed to accommodate an organization‘s specific situation. There are cases in which multiple teams of various types are employed, each representing a different competitor, your market(s), business issue(s) or other key factor(s). Given the significance of a war game exercise, the number and functions of participants, and the degree of planning, coordination and design required, it is vital to involve a knowledgeable and experienced coordinator and facilitator. Facilitators also ensure the integrity of the process, including the avoidance of assumptions, blind spots and other factors that may unduly affect the outcome.
野戰游戲可涉及范圍甚廣、更復雜.每個(gè)演練可設計到適合組織的特定條件。該游戲引用了適合各組不同情況的案例,每組代表不同的競爭者、市場(chǎng)、商業(yè)事件或其他關(guān)鍵因素。成功的野戰實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗的關(guān)鍵對參與人數及其職能、計劃程度，所需的協(xié)調與設計等方面有豐富知識和經(jīng)驗的組織和協(xié)調。
In addition to facilitators, the war game needs leaders. Since war games often consider strategic or other key issues, and its results are intended to inform management‘s decisions and actions, these exercises are best conducted with the support and direct participation of senior managers, who often assume the roles of team leaders, and occasionally, umpires or referees. It is also ideal to involve the direct participation of an organization‘s war game sponsor. And just as military generals or field marshals rely on their officers and various experts or specialists in their planning or decision-making, the composition of business war game teams is critical to the success of the exercise. Teams comprise a mix of middle managers and key functional staff, who can offer a range of perspectives about the competitor and the specific issue(s) and factor(s) under examination.
另外協(xié)調方面，野戰游戲需要領(lǐng)導。因為它常常要考慮政策或關(guān)鍵事件，這些結果會(huì )成為管理層的決定與行動(dòng)。這類(lèi)練習最好由最高級經(jīng)理直接參與和開(kāi)展活動(dòng)，他常擔任團隊的領(lǐng)導角色，偶爾做做仲裁。邀請野戰組織的主辦人直接參與其中是最理想的。而就象將軍或軍事總參在他們的制定計劃或決定時(shí)依靠他們將士或學(xué)者專(zhuān)家，野戰游戲團隊的組成是這個(gè)游戲的關(guān)鍵。這團隊是由中層經(jīng)理和關(guān)鍵職能員工組成的，他們能提供一系列的關(guān)于競爭對手和特別事件或因素的觀(guān)點(diǎn)。
A war game session may last from one to a few days, depending on the competitive/business issue(s), gaming model, resources and urgency of the situation. Likewise, preparation for a war game varies. Typically, a three-day war game takes roughly one month to prepare. This includes time for planning, defining the competitive issue(s), team construction, team briefings, research, preliminary analysis and materials processing. Costs for a war game can also vary, ranging from $20,000 to over $500,000. These fees can include research, analysis, game design and/or facilitation services, and are dependent on the complexity of the issue(s) involved and magnitude of the war game effort.
野戰部分可能需時(shí)一天或一天以上， 這是由競爭或商業(yè)事件、游戲模式、資源或情況的緊急性而定。按不同野戰類(lèi)型做不同的準備。一般地，一個(gè)三天的野戰需要一個(gè)月時(shí)間去準備。這包括計劃與定義競爭事項、團隊成員的結構，團隊的概況、研究、預前分析和材料的準備。 野戰費用也可因人而異，從兩萬(wàn)到伍拾萬(wàn)港元不等。這些費用包括研究、分析、游戲設計或服務(wù)設施，因涉及各野戰事件的復雜和游戲級數的不同而定。
More than a Game
這不僅只是一場(chǎng)游戲
From the above discussion, we can see that war gaming can support an organization‘s strategy development, planning, and decision-making by helping to
綜上所述,我們可知野戰游戲能支持一個(gè)組織的發(fā)展戰略和計劃，還有決策的制定，有助于：
lend clarity to a range of business issues
透析一系列商業(yè)事件；
identify opportunities and ways to capitalize on them
尋找機會(huì )和方法，并使之得以利用
avoid surprises
避免意外情況的發(fā)生
outline courses of action
總括出行動(dòng)計劃
determine the potential impact of specific developments, actions, and conditions
決定某特定情況的發(fā)展趨勢、行動(dòng)和條件的潛在影響
identify information or intelligence gaps.
確定信息或能力的缺口
In addition to offering these advantages, war gaming provides a number of auxiliary benefits to a company, its managers, and intelligence teams, such as the following.
另外，野戰對一家公司、管理層和團隊可以提供一定的額外的好處：
1. Help build competitive awareness throughout all units and levels of the organization.
1． 可以有助在整個(gè)單位和不同的機構建立起競爭意識。
2. Develop a deeper understanding of the impact of roles, functions and actions across the organization. This can improve team building, coordination of efforts, and knowledge sharing.
2． 有助于加深對組織間的各職能、角色、行動(dòng)的相互影響的理解。這可改善團隊的建立、相互合作和知識共享。
3. Enhance intelligence generation by more clearly defining intelligence needs, direction, and focus, as well as engaging more personnel in information collection other ways of participation.
3． 通過(guò)對資訊需求、趨勢、關(guān)注等更清晰的定義，以及參與者更多不同的信息收集方法，促進(jìn)創(chuàng )意資訊的萌生。
Our ever evolving business battleground require continuous vigilance and efforts toward understanding the emerging and likely scenarios that involve our competitors, customers, markets, regulators, technology and other factors and influences. The war game is an effective tool for anticipating and managing a landscape that contains a host of situations, factors and potential outcomes. By understanding our business landscape and gaining more control over our environment, we can map more secure and efficient routes, develop contingencies for the inevitable shifts and detours, and gain necessary advantage for our organizations.
永遠向前的商業(yè)競爭市場(chǎng)，要求對我們的競爭者、客戶(hù)、市場(chǎng)、規則、技術(shù)和涉及其他因素或影響、可能發(fā)生的情況要有不斷的警惕，并付出我們的努力。野戰對于參與或管理的現況、因素或潛在結果的綜合情況是一項有效工具。通過(guò)對我們所處商業(yè)情況或環(huán)境得以更好的把握，我們可描畫(huà)更安全或有效的路線(xiàn)，分析不可避免的改變或彎路的可能性，使我們的組織取得必然的優(yōu)勢。
Author‘s Note: For further background on competitive intelligence, see Competitive Intelligence: A Practical Primer for Location Intelligence also by Cynthia Cheng Correia, Directions Magazine/Location Intelligence, February 21, 2006
作者備注：要得到更多資訊，請參閱由Cynthia Cheng Correia寫(xiě)的《競爭資訊》：A Practical Primer for Location Intelligence
Ten Steps of Business War Gaming
商業(yè)野戰的十大步驟：
1. Define competitive/market issue(s), related questions, scope and factors (controllable and uncontrollable) of the war game.
定義野戰游戲的競爭或市場(chǎng)因素，相關(guān)問(wèn)題，范圍和因素（可控或不可控的）
2. Plan and coordinate: participants, teams, timeline, resources, budget, etc.
計劃和協(xié)調：參與者、團隊、時(shí)間、資源、預算等
3. Conduct competitive research for the war game issue: published source collection and human source collection.
展開(kāi)野戰游戲的研究：公開(kāi)資源和人力資源征集
4. Conduct preliminary analysis based on research results.
展開(kāi)研究結果的初步分析
5. Pre-game team preparation: provide briefings, instructions, tutorials, assignments, and the research and analysis materials kit to participants.
戰前準備工作：向參與者提出概述、指引、指導、任務(wù)和研究分析材料。
6. Conduct war game exercise(s): simulations of likely actions and reactions under specific scenarios and conditions.
開(kāi)展野戰游戲實(shí)戰：在特定的情節或條件下模擬行動(dòng)及其反擊行動(dòng)。
7. Draw conclusions to likely scenarios and outcomes and form recommendations.
總結情節和結果，提出最佳方案
8. Devise formal strategy, plan(s), contingencies, next steps, etc. based on previous step.
在上一步驟的基礎上，設計正式計劃、策略、或有事項和下一步計劃等。
9. Debrief participants regarding the process: identify key lessons and ways to improve exercises.
聽(tīng)取參與者的流程報告：訂出主要方法與經(jīng)驗去改善實(shí)踐
10. Identify additional intelligence efforts that are required (such as establishing a continuous war gaming process or an early warning system for your war game issue).
確定所需要的更多的創(chuàng )意思維，如對野戰事件建立起持續的游戲步驟或預警系統。
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