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Energy
能源
The future of energy
能源的未來(lái)
Jun 19th 2008
From The Economist print edition
A fundamental change is coming sooner than you might think
巨變轉瞬及至 速度超出想象
SINCE the industrial revolution 200 years ago, mankind has depended on fossil fuel. The notion that this might change is hard to contemplate. Greens may hector. 15:03 2008-6-24 may nag. The central heating’s thermostat may turn down a notch or two. A less thirsty car may sit in the drive. But actually stop using the stuff? Impossible to imagine: surely there isn’t a serious alternative?
從200年前的工業(yè)革命以來(lái)，人類(lèi)就一直依賴(lài)化石燃料，幾乎從未仔細想過(guò)過(guò)會(huì )有所改變。也許有環(huán)保人士危言聳聽(tīng)，也許有些良心不安。也許會(huì )把中央空調調低一兩格，或者買(mǎi)輛低油耗車(chē)子。但不再用這些東西？很難想象：真的沒(méi)有選擇了嗎？
Such a failure of imagination has been at the heart of the debate about climate change. The green message-use less energy-is not going to solve the problem unless economic growth stops at the same time. If it does not (and it won’t), any efficiency saving will soon be eaten up by higher consumption per head. Even the hair-shirt option, then, will bring only short-term relief. And when a dire prophecy from environmentalism’s jeremiad looks as if it is coming true, as the price of petroleum rises through the roof and the idea that oil might run out is no longer whispered in corners but openly discussed, there is a temptation to believe that the end of the world is, indeed, nigh.
眼下氣候變化問(wèn)題爭得紛紛攘攘，根源就是安于現狀，缺乏對未來(lái)的設想?！惫澕s能源”-不錯的環(huán)?？谔?，但無(wú)濟于事。除非經(jīng)濟同時(shí)停止增長(cháng)，否則就算用最苛刻的手法也只能暫時(shí)緩和，不管節約多少很快就被更高的人均消費所吞噬。哪怕像苦行僧一樣生活，也是換湯不換藥的做法。環(huán)保主義預計的暗淡前景似乎就會(huì )成為現實(shí)。油價(jià)飆升，儲量告急，當這些不再是市井傳言而成為公開(kāi)議題時(shí)。人們有理由相信，世界末日，真的，不遠了。
Not everyone, however, is so pessimistic. For, in the imaginations of a coterie of physicists, biologists and engineers, an alternative world is taking shape. As the special report in this issue describes, plans for the end of the fossil-fuel economy are now being laid and they do not involve much self-flagellation. Instead of bullying and scaring people, the prophets of energy technology are attempting to seduce them. They promise a world where, at one level, things will have changed beyond recognition, but at another will have stayed comfortably the same, and may even have got better.
但也不是每個(gè)人都如此悲觀(guān)。在物理學(xué)家，生物學(xué)家和工程師的眼中，另一個(gè)世界正在成型。一篇關(guān)于此議題的特別報道提出，石化能源經(jīng)濟時(shí)代結束后的計劃已經(jīng)在制定中，而且沒(méi)有多少痛苦的轉型過(guò)程。提倡新能源的人士不會(huì )威逼嚇唬，而是去誘惑人們，為他們勾畫(huà)出一個(gè)超出想象卻又同樣舒適，甚至更加美好的世界。
This time it’s serious
這次來(lái)真的了
Alternative energy sounds like a cop-out. Windmills and solar cells hardly seem like ways of producing enough electricity to power a busy, self-interested world, as furnaces and steam-turbines now do. Battery-powered cars, meanwhile, are slightly comic: more like milk-floats than Maseratis. But the proponents of the new alternatives are serious. Though many are interested in environmental benefits, their main motive is money. They are investing their cash in ideas that they think will make them large amounts more. And for the alternatives to do that, they need to be both as cheap as (or cheaper than) and as easy to use as (or easier than) what they are replacing.
替代能源聽(tīng)起來(lái)像在逃避現實(shí)。風(fēng)力和太陽(yáng)能似乎都很難如現在的熔爐和蒸汽輪機那樣給這個(gè)繁忙自私的世界提供足夠的電力。電池驅動(dòng)的汽車(chē)更加有點(diǎn)搞笑，就像送奶的馬車(chē)，離名牌跑車(chē)還差的遠。但新替代能源的支持者卻非常認真對待。盡管他們中不少人看中其環(huán)保價(jià)值，但更多卻是為了錢(qián)。因此不管是什么替代品，必須要便宜（至少不必現在高）又要容易使用（至少不比現在難）。
For oil replacements, cheap suddenly looks less of a problem. The biofuels or batteries that will power cars in the alternative future should beat petrol at today’s prices. Of course, today’s prices are not tomorrow’s. The price of oil may fall; but so will the price of biofuels, as innovation improves crops, manufacturing processes and fuels.
對于石油的替代品來(lái)說(shuō)，價(jià)格突然不是什么問(wèn)題了。未來(lái)使用生化燃料或者電池驅動(dòng)汽車(chē)價(jià)格應當會(huì )比今天的石油更有競爭力。當然價(jià)格不是一成不變的。石油的價(jià)格或許會(huì )跌。但通過(guò)改進(jìn)作物，生產(chǎn)流程和燃燒效率，生物燃料價(jià)格也會(huì )降低。
Electrical energy, meanwhile, will remain cheaper than petrol energy in almost any foreseeable future, and tomorrow’s electric cars will be as easy to fill with juice from a socket as today’s are with petrol from a pump. Unlike cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells, of the sort launched by Honda this week, battery cars do not need new pipes to deliver their energy. The existing grid, tweaked and smartened to make better use of its power stations, should be infrastructure enough. What matters is the nature of those power stations.
與此同時(shí)，在任何可預見(jiàn)的未來(lái)中，電力都比汽油便宜。未來(lái)的電力汽車(chē)插上插座就能充電，和現在用油泵加油一樣。本田公司本周公布的新車(chē)型依然屬于氫燃料電池驅動(dòng)車(chē)，而電池汽車(chē)不需要新渠道輸送能量?，F有的電網(wǎng)調整優(yōu)化后，能提高使用發(fā)電站輸出電能的使用效率。這樣基礎設施就已足夠用了，關(guān)鍵是用什么發(fā)電。
The price is right
價(jià)格合理
They, too, are more and more likely to be alternative. Wind power is taking on natural gas, which has risen in price in sympathy with oil. Wind is closing in on the price of coal, as well. Solar energy is a few years behind, but the most modern systems already promise wind-like prices. Indeed, both industries are so successful that manufacturers cannot keep up, and supply bottlenecks are forcing prices higher than they otherwise would be. It would help if coal-the cheapest fuel for making electricity-were taxed to pay for the climate-changing effects of the carbon dioxide produced when it burns, but even without such a tax, some ambitious entrepreneurs are already talking of alternatives that are cheaper than coal.
另外兩種似乎會(huì )是更合適的替代品。風(fēng)力已經(jīng)趕上天然氣，后者的價(jià)格隨著(zhù)石油水漲船高，而風(fēng)力價(jià)格已經(jīng)接近煤礦。同時(shí)太陽(yáng)能也只落后幾年。但大多數現代體系已經(jīng)認可了風(fēng)力這種程度的價(jià)格。事實(shí)上，兩個(gè)行業(yè)都非常成功，供不應求。它們價(jià)格本不該如此，但受制于供應不足的瓶頸而被迫提高。煤作為最便宜的發(fā)電燃料，燃燒時(shí)產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳對氣候有很大影響。如果對其收取特殊稅將有助于替代能源的發(fā)展。然而就算不需支付這種稅，一些雄心勃勃的企業(yè)就已開(kāi)始討論采用比煤更便宜的替代品了。
Older, more cynical hands may find this disturbingly familiar. The last time such alternatives were widely discussed was during the early 1970s. Then, too, a spike in the price of oil coincided with a fear that natural limits to supply were close. The newspapers were full of articles on solar power, fusion and converting the economy to run on fuel cells and hydrogen.
老憤青們也許會(huì )發(fā)現如今不安和歷史驚人的相似。上一次替代能源引起廣泛討論是在上世紀70年代初。當時(shí)油價(jià)同樣暴漲，同樣引發(fā)了對自然資源很快枯竭的恐懼。報紙上全是探討太陽(yáng)能，核能和改變經(jīng)濟基礎，以燃料電池和氫氣作為主要能源的文章。
Of course, there was no geological shortage of oil, just a politically manipulated one. Nor is there a geological shortage this time round. But that does not matter, for there are two differences between then and now. The first is that this price rise is driven by demand. More energy is needed all round. That gives alternatives a real opening. The second is that 35 years have winnowed the technological wheat from the chaff. Few believe in fusion now, though uranium-powered fission reactors may be coming back into fashion. And, despite Honda’s launch, the idea of a hydrogen economy is also fading fast. Thirty-five years of improvements have, however, made wind, solar power and high-tech batteries attractive.
當然，石油儲量本身并沒(méi)有減少。一切都是政治操控的結果。別說(shuō)石油不短缺，就算是的也無(wú)所謂，現在和以前完全不同。首先這次漲價(jià)是由于需求增加引起的。世界各地都需要更多能源，這給替代能源打開(kāi)了大門(mén)。其次35年以來(lái)，各類(lèi)技術(shù)已經(jīng)去蕪存菁。盡管鈾核裂變能源或許會(huì )重新流行，但核能如今已引起了廣泛的質(zhì)疑。而氫氣能源盡管這次本田推出了新車(chē)，依然免不了很快衰退。不管怎樣，35年的進(jìn)步讓風(fēng)力，太陽(yáng)能核高科技電池成為熱門(mén)。
As these alternatives start to roll out in earnest, their rise, optimists hope, will become inexorable. Economies of scale will develop and armies of engineers will tweak them to make them better and cheaper still. Some, indeed, think alternative energy will be the basis of a boom bigger than information technology.
這些替代性能源的運用開(kāi)始有了實(shí)質(zhì)性的進(jìn)展。樂(lè )觀(guān)的估計，他們的增長(cháng)趨勢不可阻擋。規模的擴大會(huì )產(chǎn)生額外的經(jīng)濟效應。大量工程師會(huì )不斷調整使它們進(jìn)一步做到質(zhì)優(yōu)價(jià)廉。一些人堅信替代能源對經(jīng)濟繁榮的促進(jìn)將超過(guò)信息技術(shù)。
Whether that boom will happen quickly enough to stop the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reaching dangerous levels is moot. But without alternative energy sources such a rise is certain. The best thing that rich-world governments can do is to encourage the alternatives by taxing carbon (even knowing that places like China and India will not) and removing subsidies that favour fossil fuels. Competition should do the rest-for the fledgling firms of the alternative-energy industry are in competition with each other as much as they are with the incumbent fossil-fuel companies. Let a hundred flowers bloom. When they have, China, too, may find some it likes the look of. Therein lies the best hope for the energy business, and the planet.
光明何時(shí)到來(lái)？是否能趕在大氣中聚集的二氧化碳達到危險程度之前？一切都是未知數。但如果沒(méi)有替代能源，二氧化碳肯定會(huì )提高。最理想的就是富國政府能收取溫室氣體排放稅（哪怕知道印度和中國肯定不會(huì )這樣做）并取消對石化燃料的補助，以求能促進(jìn)替代能源的發(fā)展。剩下的就由競爭決定。新興的替代能源公司相互廝殺，當然還要對抗石化能源公司。百花齊放的能源市場(chǎng)或許會(huì )讓富國當然還有中國發(fā)現自己鐘愛(ài)的替代品。這樣，能源市場(chǎng)還有我們生活的星球才有希望迎接一個(gè)光明的未來(lái)。
