INGOpening range breakout is one of themost important indicators of daily market direction that a tradercan utilize.
開(kāi)盤(pán)區間突破是一個(gè)可以用來(lái)判斷每天市場(chǎng)方向的重要工具。
An opening range breakout (ORB) is a trade taken at a predeterminedamount above or below the
opening range. When the predetermined amount (the "stretch") iscomputed, a buy stop is placed that amount above the high of theopening range and a sell stop is placed the same amount below thelow of the opening range. The first stop that is traded is theposition and the other stop is a protective stop.
開(kāi)盤(pán)區間突破（記做ORB）是通過(guò)在開(kāi)盤(pán)區間的上下加減預定的數值范圍進(jìn)行交易。當預定的數值范圍被確定，這個(gè)買(mǎi)點(diǎn)就被放置在開(kāi)盤(pán)區間的最高處或放在最低處的同等數值。一個(gè)作為進(jìn)場(chǎng)點(diǎn)，另一個(gè)作為止損點(diǎn)。
The stretch is determined by looking at the previous 10 days andaveraging the differences between the open for each day and theclosest extreme to the open on each day.
這一數值是通過(guò)查看前面10天日內最高價(jià)或者最低價(jià)與開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)價(jià)差的平均值而等到的。
In a market with a strong bias in one direction or just after aclear supply or demand indication, a trade in only one direction istaken. This is called an Opening Range Breakout Preference (ORBP).The only order entered is the stop in the direction of the entry.The protective stop is entered only after the trade has beenentered.
當市場(chǎng)有強烈的方向，且方向明確后，供求關(guān)系已經(jīng)明顯，那么順著(zhù)這個(gè)方向交易是唯一的選擇。這叫做開(kāi)盤(pán)區間突破偏好現象（記做ORBP。此時(shí)，唯一需要做的就是順勢進(jìn)場(chǎng)，而進(jìn)場(chǎng)后要設立止損點(diǎn)。
If the market trades to the stretch in the opposite directionfirst, the preference is nullified and the resting order iscancelled. This requires you to monitor the market during thesession. Intraday market monitoring is not a sacrifice by any meansand enhances the system.
如果市場(chǎng)沿著(zhù)市場(chǎng)反方向運行，那么這個(gè)ORBP是無(wú)效的，最好休息停止這次交易。這就要求在盤(pán)中監控市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)向了。仔細看盤(pán)可不是種浪費，它是能提高交易系統效率的好辦法。
Opening range breakout is effective after an inside day that has asmaller daily range than the previous four days (IDnr4 in Figure 1) and after any day that has a daily range less than the previoussix days (NR7) whether an inside day or not.
ORB這一現象發(fā)生在IDnr4或者NR7之后常常是有效的。IDnr4是指振幅（最高價(jià)與最低價(jià)的差）小于前面4天的孕線(xiàn)形態(tài)。NR7是指振幅小于前面6天的形態(tài)。
"Hook" days also tend to precede big moves in one direction. A hookday is any day that opens
above/below the previous days' high/low then proceeds to reversethe previous day's close but does so with a daily range less thanthe previous day.
“陷阱”形態(tài)也往往有這一現象?！跋葳濉笔侵改程斓拈_(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)高于/低于前面幾天的最高/最低點(diǎn)然后反昨日的方向收盤(pán)但振幅小于前昨日的形態(tài)。
March copper in Figure 1 displays examples of all these patterns.Inside days with the narrowest range in four days (IDnr4) occur atpoints c, e, g, i, n, o and t. Days with ranges smaller than thoseof the previous six days (NR7) occur at points a, d, f, g, h, j, m,n, p and s. Hook days occur at points b, q and r. Notice theproximity of some of the next day's openings to one of the extremesfor that day and the general tendency of the close of the same dayto be at the opposite extreme.
圖一中三月期銅的圖表展示了上面形態(tài)的幾個(gè)例子。IDnr4是圖中c,e,g,i,n,o,t.NR7是圖中a,d,f,g,h,j,m,n,p,s.陷阱形態(tài)是b,q和r。請注意其后那些開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)和收盤(pán)價(jià)在日內區間兩極的日子。
未譯完，待續.........................................
The earlier in the session the entry istaken the better chances for success.
盤(pán)中進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號發(fā)生的越早，成功的機會(huì )越大。
The ORBP provides an effective trade entry at times of a clear biasin one direction. In particular, a running market provides a veryclear bias. On any inside day, the ORBP should be taken. Insidedays act as springboards for an immediate continuation in thedirection of the run. In Figure 2, the July soybean oil chartdisplays a running market between numbers 1 and 2. Within that run,inside days at points a thru e all resulted in successful openingrange breakout trades with the open on or near the low of thesession in each case. Direction is not as predictable at insidedays f, g and h, but the opening range breakout the
following day in each case provides an excellent entry.
ORBP在一個(gè)明確的方向上提供了有效的進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號，特別是當乖離明顯的時(shí)候。在很多孕線(xiàn)形態(tài)出現時(shí)，ORBP應該被運用。孕線(xiàn)被當作大趨勢運行方向中一個(gè)快速跳板。圖2中，7月豆油期貨顯示點(diǎn)1和點(diǎn)2的方向性趨勢運行。運行中，A到E的幾乎所有孕線(xiàn)形態(tài)導致了成功的開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)格在日內最低點(diǎn)的開(kāi)盤(pán)區間突破。在點(diǎn)F，G和H中方向是不定的，但轉天的ORB提供了漂亮的進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號。
A gap in the direction of the run is a strong indication ofcontinuation and an ORBP can be taken in the direction of the gapwith an overnight position held if a big day follows. October sugarin Figure 3 shows three gaps (points a, b, c) within a very definedupward run. Note the tendency for the open to act as the low of theday in each case. If a breakout to the downside had occurred inthese cases no trades would have been taken. Logically, any of thepatterns mentioned for use with the ORB can be utilized in an ORBPwhen the bias is clear.
順勢的跳空顯示了趨勢，而且如果接下來(lái)是大區間日，在跳空方向上利用ORBP建立的倉位可以持有過(guò)夜。圖三中，10月期糖顯示了三個(gè)明顯上升趨勢的跳空缺口（點(diǎn)A，B，C）。注意這些以開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)作為日內低點(diǎn)的傾向。如果是反向的突破那么就不要交易了。從邏輯上講，很多ORB想臺都可以在乖離明顯的情況下得以利用。
Upthrusts/springs, reversal gaps or any sharp reversal should befollowed up with an ORBP in the direction of the reversal for atleast two days afterward if it confirms the intermediate trend. TheNovember soybean chart (Figure 4) displays upthrusts at points 1, 3and 5 and springs at points 2, 4, and 6. Note the openings the daysafter the springs and the marked tendency for them to occur nearone extreme of the day. The upthrusts were not as successful sincea clear upward bias did exist. Again, ORB is most effective afteran inside day or a day whose range is less than any of the previoussix days (NR7).
Upthrusts/springs形態(tài)，如果是趨勢中跡，反向跳空或者凌厲的逆轉之后，應該在兩天后有ORBP現象發(fā)生。圖4中，11月大豆期貨圖表顯示了點(diǎn)1.3.5的Upthrusts形態(tài)，和點(diǎn)2.4.6的springs形態(tài)。注意springs形態(tài)后開(kāi)盤(pán)在振幅的一端，而Upthrusts形態(tài)沒(méi)有明顯的乖離現象發(fā)生?？磥?lái)ORB現象還是在IDnr4和NR7形態(tài)后最有效。
未譯完，待續................
In general, the earlier in the session theentry is taken the better the chances for success. In fact, theideal is an entry within the first 10 minutes of the session. Inthat case, an immediate continuation in the direction of thebreakout is likely. When you get a large price movement in onedirection within the first 15 minutes of the session (early entry),the protective stop can be moved to break-even very quickly and thetrade is free.
一般來(lái)說(shuō)，盤(pán)中進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號越早成功的機會(huì )越大。事實(shí)上，盤(pán)中前10分鐘是理想的進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號。在這種情況下，突破方向的持續是可能的。當你在開(kāi)盤(pán)后15分鐘順勢進(jìn)行交易，應該運用移動(dòng)保護止損點(diǎn)來(lái)保護倉位快進(jìn)快出。
The more time that passes between the open and trade entry, thelower the probability of success. Adjust the size of your positiondownward as the day goes on. The worst entry is just before theclose when time is running out and it is difficult to realize aprofit. The objective of these entry techniques is to establish aposition for a two- to three-day run, but this is successful onlyif a substantial profit is realized by the end of the firstsession.
開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)運行到進(jìn)場(chǎng)進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號所花的時(shí)間越長(cháng)，成功的可能就越低。隨著(zhù)時(shí)間要降低倉位。最糟糕的進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號是那些發(fā)生在收盤(pán)前的，他們很難有時(shí)間去實(shí)現當日贏(yíng)利了。這一進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號的目標是2-3天，但只有在進(jìn)場(chǎng)當天已經(jīng)獲得比較大的利潤的前提下才有可能實(shí)現。
After the trade is entered the clock starts ticking. The idealtrade will show a profit almost
instantaneously. The longer it takes to move away from the point ofentry, the more vulnerable the position. In general, stops shouldbe moved to a break-even within one hour after entry. A market thatdisplays greater tendency to trend should be given less time thanan hour.
這種早早進(jìn)場(chǎng)的方法，理想情況是進(jìn)場(chǎng)后馬上就有利潤。價(jià)格移動(dòng)所花費的時(shí)間越長(cháng)，交易越容易失敗，一般進(jìn)場(chǎng)后一個(gè)小時(shí)就已經(jīng)獲利了，有趨勢的市場(chǎng)應該在前一個(gè)小時(shí)表現出他的趨勢。
For example, the S&P usually takes no more thanfive to 10 minutes before a clear getaway occurs. When judging themarket action after entry, compare it to examples of ideal, earlyentries with immediate profit and persistent followthroughthereafter. Action that varies from the ideal is suspect.
例如標普期指通常5-10分鐘就有一個(gè)明確的信號發(fā)生。進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號后判斷市場(chǎng)，比較它和理想狀態(tài)在瞬時(shí)贏(yíng)利和持續性上的差別。不同于理想情況的價(jià)格行為都是可疑的。
The ORB can be utilized as a general indicator of bias every day.Whichever side of the stretch is traded first will indicate bias inthat direction for the next two to three hours of the session. Thisinformation alone will keep you out of trouble, if nothingelse.
ORB可以作為判斷每天方向的一個(gè)指標，向哪一方向出現擴張現象，在接下來(lái)的2-3小時(shí)就很可能持續這個(gè)方向運動(dòng)。若無(wú)其他事情發(fā)生，這個(gè)信息可以讓你遠離麻煩了。
Multiple contracts can be used when entering on an ORB or ORBP.This allows for some profit taking as the move continues toguarantee at least some profit in the case of a pullback to thebreak-even stop. A trailing stop is also very effective.
很多合約品種都可以使用ORB和ORBP判斷。利用跟蹤止贏(yíng)策略來(lái)保持在回調中處于盈虧平衡的狀態(tài)。尾盤(pán)出場(chǎng)策略也是很有效的。
If you miss the ORB and early entry occurred, any 3/8 to 1/2retracement of the established range can be used as an entry pointwith stops beyond the 5/8 level. This technique can be utilizedtwice, but becomes treacherous on the third retracement.
如果你錯過(guò)了ORB和早盤(pán)進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號，3/8-1/2的回調也可以進(jìn)場(chǎng)，同時(shí)配合5/8處的止損保護點(diǎn)。此方法可以用兩次，第三次就比較危險了。
In summary, the open is a primary market indicator. Without anunderstanding of its importance and the market action around it, itis difficult to come to correct conclusions about market direction.On certain days the open acts as an ideal point of entry uponbreakout. On any day that such a breakout occurs within the first10 minutes of trade, the information is overwhelmingly in favor ofa continuation of that move. It a trade does not use these entrytechniques systematically they should at least be utilized as ageneral indicator of bias.
綜上，開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)是市場(chǎng)一個(gè)重要指標。不理解它的重要性和其周?chē)鷷r(shí)段的價(jià)格行為，很難對市場(chǎng)方向進(jìn)行準確研判。在特定的日子里開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)是很好的突破切入點(diǎn)。在任何開(kāi)盤(pán)后10分鐘產(chǎn)生突破現象的日子里，很多時(shí)候都會(huì )持續運行在這個(gè)方向上。這項技術(shù)不被作為進(jìn)場(chǎng)點(diǎn)技術(shù)至少也可以用于判斷價(jià)格運行方向。
未譯完，待續...........................
Early entry is defined as a large price movement in one directionwithin the first five minutes after the open of the daily session.A study of early entry is essentially a study of price action, andthe type of price action that takes place on early entry shows thatparticipants are urgent about entering the market. It is a distinctrecognition of either a profitable or dangerous situation.
早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號是指開(kāi)盤(pán)后5分鐘第一個(gè)較大的價(jià)格移動(dòng)。早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號的研究主要是對價(jià)格行為及其類(lèi)型的研究，發(fā)生早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號說(shuō)明有一些市場(chǎng)參與者迫切的進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，它是一種對贏(yíng)利機會(huì )或是風(fēng)險的獨特識別。
It should be noted that directional moves of this nature arerelatively rare and may occur only 10% of the time. Most days (70%to 80%), prices exhibit rotation or choppy action and the firstfive to 10 minutes of trading are sluggish and directionlesswithout a clear movement away from the opening range.
應該指出，這種自然的定向移動(dòng)現象是比較少見(jiàn)的，10天里大概也就有1天。大部分日子里（70%-80%是時(shí)候）價(jià)格在開(kāi)盤(pán)后5-10分鐘里是盤(pán)旋震蕩的，它漫無(wú)方向的緩緩離開(kāi)開(kāi)盤(pán)范圍。
The early entry price action is ideal when using an opening rangebreakout for entry. An opening range breakout is a trade taken at apredetermined amount above or below the opening range. The openshould act as one extreme of this range.
當使用開(kāi)盤(pán)區間突破的方法進(jìn)場(chǎng)時(shí)早盤(pán)發(fā)生價(jià)格定向移動(dòng)是理想的。開(kāi)盤(pán)區間突破是通過(guò)開(kāi)盤(pán)區間上下加減預定的數值范圍進(jìn)行交易。開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)應該作為當日振幅范圍的一端。
I have observed two types of early entry. The characteristics ofType 1 (Figures 1 and 2) are as follows:The first five minute timeperiod has a larger range than normal. ("Normal" is roughly definedas the average of the preceding 10 days' first five-minuteranges.)
我觀(guān)察到了兩種類(lèi)型的早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號。第一種的特點(diǎn)如下：（圖一和圖二）開(kāi)盤(pán)后第一個(gè)5分鐘有比正常情況更大的振幅。（“正常情況”是指大概以往10天開(kāi)盤(pán)后前5分鐘振幅的平均值）
The opening of the day is on one extreme of the five-minute bar andthe close of the five-minute bar is on the opposite extreme. Thesecond five minutes shows an equal thrust in the direction of thefirst five-minute period.
開(kāi)盤(pán)價(jià)位于當日第一個(gè)五分鐘線(xiàn)的一端而且這個(gè)五分鐘線(xiàn)收在另一端。第二個(gè)五分鐘顯示出順延第一個(gè)五分鐘方向上等量的推動(dòng)力。
The Type 2 early. entry is extremely powerful and is characterizedby an excessively large range in the first five minutes, quitepossibly bigger than the previous 20 days ' first five-minuteperiods (Figures 3 and 4).
第二類(lèi)早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號是極其強有力的且范圍極大的前5分鐘振幅，幾乎要大于前面20天的早間前5分鐘的振幅（圖3圖4）
An equal thrust in the next time period is difficult to manage, buta general drift in the direction of the first five minutes islikely with an acceleration after further accumulation hasoccurred.
這樣在第二個(gè)五分鐘內出現等量的推動(dòng)力就顯得強人所難了，但很可能經(jīng)過(guò)一定盤(pán)整震蕩孕育出加速。
未譯完，待續...............................
One possible trading scheme is to use anopening range breakout entry technique each day, anticipating earlyentry. If ideal action does not occur within the first five to 10minutes, cancel orders. In a defined trend or running market, useearly entry to verify the existing trend and then use any pullbacksof 3/8 to 1/2 of the existing daily range for another entry.
An open that occurs outside the previous day's high or low, in mostcases, sets up an intraday upthrust or spring. These are top andbottom reversal patterns and tests show that on a move back intothe previous day's range by two ticks, the market has a 67% chanceof continuing into yesterday's range and closing beyond that point.This is excellent advance information and, when it moves as far asthe early entry extreme price, it shifts the momentum for theentire day's trade and, quite possibly, several days' trading if areversal pattern forms on the daily chart.
期待早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號，每天使用開(kāi)盤(pán)區間突破的技術(shù)是可行的交易策略。如果開(kāi)盤(pán)后5-10分鐘內沒(méi)有理想的價(jià)格行為發(fā)生，則取消交易計劃。在趨勢中的市場(chǎng)，使用早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號驗證趨勢，然后3/8到1/2的回調用于再次進(jìn)場(chǎng)。，在大多數情況下，一個(gè)高開(kāi)或低開(kāi)，建立了盤(pán)中的擴張與延伸。有很多頂和底的形態(tài)被測試表明，價(jià)格運動(dòng)超過(guò)前日振幅兩個(gè)點(diǎn)（譯者：作者這里的兩個(gè)點(diǎn)不是指2%，是指TICK兩個(gè)委托跳動(dòng)，今后的點(diǎn)也都是這個(gè)，請勿混淆），市場(chǎng)有67%的可能在這一方向上維持前日的振幅到收盤(pán)。這可有了一個(gè)進(jìn)一步的好消息，當它位移漸漸遠離早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號的價(jià)格時(shí)，勢頭很可能演變?yōu)橐徽斓内厔?。若日線(xiàn)圖上反轉形態(tài)確立，則很可能持續幾天的小行情。
未譯完，待續.......................
Early entry failure
早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號的失敗
Of course, there are times when, even with a defined thrust, themarket will not follow through and, in fact, will sometimes reversecompletely. This is defined as early entry failure (Figures 5 and6) and is associated with a momentum increase in the oppositedirection of early entry.
當然。有些時(shí)候，即使貌似方向明確，市場(chǎng)也未必落實(shí)，事實(shí)上，有些時(shí)候甚至完全相反，這是失敗的早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號，即日趨勢與早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號方向相反的情況（圖5和圖6）。
Momentum can be assessed by the range of the time unit (i.e., a 5-,15-, 30-minute bar chart). An increased range relative to theprevious time unit(s) shows an increase in momentum. Ideally, thisshould not happen and when it does, it usually indicates an earlyentry failure is occurring.
趨勢靠各個(gè)時(shí)間周期的線(xiàn)圖來(lái)識別。（5分15分30分鐘等等）相對于前面時(shí)間擴張的震幅顯示了動(dòng)量的增加。理想情況下，這不該發(fā)生，通常表明早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號失敗。
As a rule, no countermove 5-minute bar should have a range largerthan the first 5-minute bar. All such larger bars should confirmearly entry. In fact, any 5-minute bar against early entry that isrelatively large compared to previous bars which confirmed earlyentry will imply a shift in momentum and possibly early entryfailure.
所以，作為一條規則：不能出現比開(kāi)盤(pán)后五分鐘K線(xiàn)振幅大的反方向K線(xiàn)。所有大振幅的K線(xiàn)必須確認早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號。事實(shí)上，任何與早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號振幅相反的大K線(xiàn)，都可能預示著(zhù)轉變的勢頭，并可能促使早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號失敗。
Neutral or confirming price action is crucial just after the earlyentry indication. When entry is taken on a pullback, narrow rangebars should have been present on the retracement. A countermovewith a momentum increase (i.e., larger bars) is a warning thatfailure is occurring.
早間進(jìn)場(chǎng)信號價(jià)格行為的確認極其重要。當采取回調進(jìn)場(chǎng)法，回調應該都是小振幅的。大振幅的回調往往預示著(zhù)失敗信號的發(fā)生。
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