From the point of view of an original equipment manufacturer (OEM), the lifecycle of a product comprises the following five phases: concept, definition, realization, support and retirement.
從原始設備制造商(OEM)的角度來(lái)看,一款產(chǎn)品的生命周期包括五個(gè)階段:概念階段、定義階段、制造階段、運維階段和退役階段。
During the conceptual phase, the market requirements are identified and a product design concept is developed.
在概念階段,基于識別出的市場(chǎng)需求,形成產(chǎn)品設計理念。
The definition phase consists of the detailed design of the product, the planning of the manufacturing process and the development of a prototype.
定義階段包括產(chǎn)品詳細設計,制造工藝規劃和原型開(kāi)發(fā)。
The actual production and the subsequent warehousing take place in the realization phase.
制造階段主要包括實(shí)際的生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)以及隨后的倉儲活動(dòng)。
During the support phase, the OEM is dealing with the selling and delivery of the product, and the installation, maintenance and supply support. In fleet management, this phase is also known as the operation and maintenance phase, which includes the acquisition, introduction, operation and maintenance of an aircraft fleet. In general, the supply support for repairables is crucial, and includes not only support from the OEM, but also maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) facilities for continuous repair actions. Having an efficient supply support is necessary for continuous operational performance.
在支持階段,OEM出售制造出的產(chǎn)品并交付給客戶(hù),同時(shí)向客戶(hù)提供安裝、維護和供應保障等服務(wù)。在航空業(yè),這個(gè)階段也被稱(chēng)為運營(yíng)和維護階段,它包括一個(gè)機隊的采購、引進(jìn)、運營(yíng)和維護。一般而言,對可修理件的供應保障最為重要,這不僅取決于OEM能否提供足夠的航材備件,也取決于MRO企業(yè)是否有長(cháng)久持續的維修能力??偠灾?,持續穩定的運營(yíng)業(yè)績(jì)離不開(kāi)一個(gè)高效的供應保障體系。
Obviously, as is the case with any product, an aircraft depreciates in value with time. The reduction in value arises from a number of factors, including the increased cost of maintenance, repair and upgrading to comply with legislation. At some stage, the operation,maintenance, repair and upgrading become uneconomic, and at this point, the owner will consider taking the aircraft out of service . Hence, the operation and maintenance phase may also deal with the strategic decisions for asset retirement.
和任何其他產(chǎn)品一樣,一架飛機會(huì )隨著(zhù)使用時(shí)間的延長(cháng)而貶值。引起貶值的因素有很多,其中就包括逐漸升高的維護成本和為了滿(mǎn)足適航要求而進(jìn)行的升級改造。到了一定階段,維護和升級就會(huì )變得不經(jīng)濟,這個(gè)時(shí)候飛機的所有者就會(huì )考慮把飛機退出運營(yíng)。因此,運營(yíng)和維護階段也可能包括有關(guān)飛機何時(shí)退役的戰略決策。
Retirement includes all the activities involved in managing assets that are still owned, but no longer being used, including decommissioning, protection and disposal. The optimal time to retire an aircraft is dependent on the characteristics and history of that aircraft and the economic and regulatory environment in which it operates. If one plots the aggregated retirements with the aircraft age, one finds a remarkably consistent S-curve relationship, and aircraft purchases as a whole behave in a predictable way with respect to economic cycles and the availability of new aircraft models.
退役是指為了對那些還擁有其產(chǎn)權,但卻不再使用的資產(chǎn)進(jìn)行管理所開(kāi)展的一切活動(dòng),包括停運、保存和處置三個(gè)過(guò)程。飛機退役的最佳時(shí)機取決于飛機的特性和使用歷史,以及飛機運營(yíng)所處的經(jīng)濟和法規環(huán)境。如果用飛機的數量和相對應的機齡來(lái)畫(huà)張圖,會(huì )得到一條典型的S型曲線(xiàn),這條S型關(guān)系曲線(xiàn)也同樣符合飛機采購量(當作為整體行為進(jìn)行預測時(shí))與經(jīng)濟周期和新機型的可獲得性之間的關(guān)系。
Figure 1:1 above shows the “product lifecycle” in a green supply chain. As is shown, when a product reaches the retirement phase, the reverse logistics starts and the asset, or some of the associated components, can be reused, re-manufactured or recycled. If these alternatives are not applicable, disposal is the only option.
正如圖1:1所示的產(chǎn)品生命周期示意圖,當一個(gè)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)入衰退階段時(shí),逆向物流就開(kāi)始了,飛機或者某些零部件就可以被再利用、再制造或再循環(huán),如果這些途徑都不可行,那么報廢就成了唯一的選擇。
Airplane recycling concerns the process of harvesting parts and materials from end-of-life (retired) aircraft. Remanufacturing is the rebuilding of a product to the specifications of the original manufactured product using a combination of reused, repaired and new parts .
飛機再循環(huán)關(guān)注的是怎樣從壽終(或淘汰)的飛機上獲取有利用價(jià)值的部件和材料。再制造是指使用再利用的部件、修理過(guò)的件和全新件來(lái)重新制造一個(gè)新的產(chǎn)品,這個(gè)全新的產(chǎn)品是滿(mǎn)足OEM的產(chǎn)品規范的。
Within aviation companies, the process of dismantling an aircraft at the end of its service is referred to as parting-out. Obviously, the asset value of the components and materials parted out from the retired airframes can be very considerable. The benchmarked best practice within the aviation industry is to dismantle the retired aircraft and use the parted-out spares to support the remaining fleet or to offer them on the surplus market.
航空業(yè)有時(shí)也把在服役終結后對飛機的拆解稱(chēng)為“Part-out”,很顯然,從退役的飛機上拆下來(lái)的部件和材料的價(jià)值是很可觀(guān)的。業(yè)內的常見(jiàn)的做法是把這些拆下來(lái)的件作為備件來(lái)保障公司剩余的機隊,或者出售到冗余航材市場(chǎng)上。
The retirement process should also include a set of tasks to be performed in order to phase-out the stock of spares at the end of their useful life, as well as to recycle and dispose of the spares which the system consists of. This process should adequately address the future maintenance volume, as well as fulfil the associated requirements for spares availability, at the lowest possible cost. Many actors or operators have been faced with large write-offs of excess stock after products have been retired, due to a lack of proper planning for the retirement phase. Valuable fleets of retired aircraft, for example, contain valuable spares that retain some operational or monetary value. The benchmarked best practice within the aviation industry is to use these spares to support the remaining fleet or to offer them on the surplus market.
機隊退役過(guò)程通常也包括在飛機使用壽命終結時(shí),為了清除備件庫存而進(jìn)行的一系列活動(dòng)。這個(gè)過(guò)程需要準確預測出未來(lái)的維修工作量,以及為了以盡可能低的成本獲得備件而必須滿(mǎn)足的相關(guān)要求。在飛機退出運營(yíng)后,由于缺少一個(gè)恰當的退役規劃,許多承運人都曾遇到過(guò)冗余備件難以銷(xiāo)賬的問(wèn)題,特別是當退役機隊的市場(chǎng)價(jià)值較高時(shí),為之配套的冗余備件價(jià)值也往往較高,也常常都具有可使用的或者能夠變現的價(jià)值。和從退役飛機上拆下的零部件一樣,針對這些冗余備件,航空業(yè)內普遍的做法是用來(lái)保障剩余的機隊,或者出售到冗余航材市場(chǎng)上。
When reclamation takes place, i.e. when units from discarded aircraft are collected for reuse, the stock fill rate will increase due to the parts received through reclamation, as well as the repair actions due to the scheduled and unscheduled maintenance of the operational fleet. At the same time, the number of operational aircraft will decrease over the retirement period, and obviously the demand for spares will normally decrease. The increase in the fill rate and the simultaneous decrease in the demand for parts will lead to an excessive level of spares in stock; see Figure 1:2 for an illustration of the flow of units when the reclamation process is included, i.e. when units are collected from disposed aircraft.
當從報廢飛機上拆下的零部件被重復利用時(shí),就相當于為整個(gè)航材備件市場(chǎng)增加了一個(gè)供應源,從而使得庫存供給率不斷增高,與此同時(shí),維修市場(chǎng)的業(yè)務(wù)量也會(huì )相應地增加。然而,在整個(gè)退役階段,在役飛機的數量卻是持續減少的,不斷增加的備件庫存和不斷減少的備件需求將會(huì )導致更多的航材冗余,正如圖1:2所示的那樣。From the point of veiw of aircraft part-out investors, the lifecyle of aircraft family can be divedied into three pahses: growth stage, mature stage and retirement stage. As the above illustration shows, the mature phase could be identified by the percentage of active aircraft in total deliveries. During the period between the last aircraft entered into service and the first aircraft reaches retirement age,the percentage maintaines stable at a high level near 100%, we called this period as Mature stage, the subsequent stage of that is retirement stage.
從投資飛機拆解的角度來(lái)看,某一機型系列的生命周期可分為三個(gè)階段:增長(cháng)期,成熟期和退役期。如上圖所示,我們可以用在役機隊占最終交付量的百分比來(lái)區分這些階段。從生產(chǎn)的最后一架飛機投入運營(yíng),到生產(chǎn)的第一架飛機到達退役機齡的這段時(shí)間,我們稱(chēng)之為該機型系列的成熟期,緊跟著(zhù)的就是該機型的退役階段。
In order to differ from the surplus parts which generates during operation and maintenance phase , aircraft aftermarekt named Used serviceable material (USM) to refer to the parts derived from scrapped or parted-out aircraft. As mentionded before, the aim of parting-out aircraft is to harvest valuable parts, and sell them on the surplus market to supply the active fleet. Utimately, the value of USM depends on supply versus demand. If a fleet has imploded beyond a certain point as a result of a cascade of retirements within a few year, then the excessive availability of USM components made available from these retirements will affect the value.
為了區別于運維階段產(chǎn)生的冗余航材,在飛機二級市場(chǎng)上大家常用USM來(lái)表示從報廢飛機或拆解的飛機上獲得的可用件。如前面所提到的,拆解飛機的目的就是獲得有價(jià)值的零部件,然后通過(guò)冗余航材市場(chǎng)來(lái)保障在役機隊?;旧?,USM件的價(jià)值取決于市場(chǎng)供需關(guān)系,通常會(huì )存在某個(gè)特定的時(shí)間點(diǎn),在這個(gè)點(diǎn)之后,大量的飛機會(huì )在短短數年內退役,這些退役的飛機將為市場(chǎng)提供過(guò)多的USM,從而影響到USM的價(jià)格。
Therefore,the key point of investing aircraft part-out is to forecast the turning point, and disasembly moderate aircrafts before that, all of these are relied on wether they have an deep insight about the surplus market and supply chain.
因此,對于飛機拆解投資者而言,最為重要的是預測那個(gè)轉折點(diǎn),并在這之前拆解適量的飛機, 而這一切都依賴(lài)于其是否具備對冗余航材市場(chǎng)和供應鏈的深刻洞察力。
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